What if I told you there is a growing possibility Irma misses the Florida peninsula completely?

by Scott Creighton

UPDATE: Irma has slowed considerably in both moving speed and wind speed. Looks like she is now a Cat. 3 and still on the northern coast of Cuba moving due West.

11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 9
Location: 22.8°N 79.8°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

I know the doom-porners will get mad at me and I will probably get an earful about how it’s better to have people over-react than get hammered by hurricane Irma without any preparation at all… however, that said… it seems like a steadily growing possibility that she doesn’t make landfall on the Florida peninsula at all.

Early Friday morning I wrote in part:

As slow as she is moving I fully expect Irma’s path to continue to deviate before hitting us down here. Some models suggest it could make landfall in Cuba and then get pushed out into the Gulf and make it all the way up to the Panhandle before landing again.

If it continues on that westward track, Irma could pass the tip of Florida and make way in the warm waters of the Gulf before heading north and God only knows what it will be by time it lands where ever it lands.

I wrote that because Irma’s been tracking further and further westward for the past three days (as I showed in that article) and at the time of writing that, there were two lesser known models that predicted she would bounce around on Cuba and head out into the Gulf missing the tip of Florida completely.

Right now the updated spaghetti model map a NUMBER of them projecting this result.

Now, keep in mind, this is a live model image. It will update itself so what I am posting now (1:41am Eastern time Sat.) wont be the same as when you are looking at it. But right now there are a total of 7 prediction models showing Irma making landfall in Cuba and running past Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

Of those 7, two are major models. The NVGM and the CLP5 have Irma tracking way out into the Gulf and heading up to the panhandle before making landfall.

In fact, the rest of them are starting to bunch up on the West Coast of Florida just like they all bunched up on the East Coast two days ago. Back then, there were only three models suggesting it would move West, one of them being the now famous European model (UKM (dark blue)) which is currently laying right on the West Coast all the way up the state.

Here is NOAA’s tracking prediction. It’s pretty much an average of the others.

Now I am not a meteorologist but I think I can piece together the similarities in the models that show Irma heading off in the Gulf and it appears to me the longer she stays over Cuba, the more chance there is of her missing Florida or at least not hitting us until the pan-handle.

Here is a current satellite image from NOAA of where she is right now.

Floater One AVN Enanced image


2:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 9
Location: 22.3°N 78.2°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 930 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

If Irma doesn’t bounce north pretty quickly, if she digs into Cuba a bit and runs along the island for a couple hours, there is a real good chance one of those outlier models may become the median just like the European one did yesterday and tomorrow we will be seeing a bunch of them predicting her heading out to sea in the Gulf (so to speak)

Now of course… what do any of these things know? They had her heading 75 miles off East Coast of Florida just two days ago on route to South Carolina. So who the hell knows.

Plus, large storm systems are notoriously unpredictable. I guess there are a lot of factors that go into making these prediction models. Especially once they get over a piece of land somewhere.

It is still entirely possible that the damn thing is meandering it’s way right to the door of my happy little hovel down here in Tampa.

But as I wrote in a comment yesterday morning, the further it gets away from Miami the better since that is the most densely populated area in Florida and has the highest concentration of working poor people who never stood a chance to get out of the way in the first place.

I am not a weatherman expert (who are already somewhat apologizing for getting it wrong with regards to Miami… while they are still pushing doom-porn for the West Coast just like they did for the east) or any such thing but I can see trends developing and right now the trend is WEST and Irma is running over Cuba like she might stick around for a while down there… so… it is possible… maybe not LIKELY (or maybe it is?)… but it is possible… Irma will take her negative energy waves out to sea (I know its the Gulf) and stew for a little while before deciding where she goes next.

Maybe I’m just being all “HOPEY CHANGY” and shit… whistling past the graveyard… but it is… possible… right?

So if you are down here in Florida with me somewhere on the West Coast, make yourself ready… but… there is a… possibility.

I know I am making myself a target for the doom-porners. Will probably be called an Irma Truther or some thing. It’s Ok. I can take it.

Will keep giving you guys updates as long as I can.

14 Responses

  1. Stay safe…I have family in Miami who has decided to stay rather than evacuate, and they can afford to leave. For some reason, they feel that it won;t be that bad (though of course they could be wrong). It’s just a hunch.

    • thank you. I think, if he does turn north and head right into Key West and up the West Coast like they say on route to Sarasota and then Tampa, I think Miami will still be getting some pretty strong winds, and the gusts in the bands are pretty strong, but I think it’s tamed a bit on Cuba and the outer bands are a lot slower than the eye-wall so, hopefully for Miami and folks who stayed like your family members, unless they are in a low-lying area, they should be ok. Just ask em to resist the temptation to go outside with a selfie stick and they should be ok.

  2. For all the wrong predicting of the route Irma might take, at least they all got one thing correct….. it is a hurricane !
    Poor Cuba….
    Hope it does sail up into the gulf and then just gives up and dissolves…

  3. You may be right. I can’t recall ever seeing a predicted track shift 300 miles in about 48 hours.

    This hurricane could create a deep “cry wolf” effect on Floridians that will last decades. The MSM and weather channel have been screaming, “YOU ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!” for a week. If southern Florida barely gets touched, after millions have spent significant cash and time fleeing, what will they do the next time they hear the same warning?

    I wonder what effect this will have on the man-made AGW issue.
    “We need to raise your taxes, or 100 years from now the temp could….”
    “Oh, STFU”

    • this is a very interesting aspect to all of this. if it does go into the Gulf and misses us, they have essentially terrified THE ENTIRE STATE at one point or another. Gotten us to spend billions on shit we don’t need, jacked up gas prices and food prices, made the airlines billions in overpriced flights out of the state… and for what? They never had a good idea of where Irma was going until possibly NOW so, why are the hype two, three days ago, terrifying the east coast needlessly? Was it because they wanted ratings? Was it erring on the side of caution? Fact is, they were terrifying folks LONG before it could POSSIBLY have been accurately predicted. I heard one woman in a store parroting the “news” in a panic saying “EVERYONE living ANYWHERE in Florida is going to experience LIFE THREATENING WINDS” and that was early yesterday. This thing might be down to a Cat 3 before it hits Sarasota area and then it will quickly lose strength as it heads to my house in Tampa, projected to be a Cat 2 by then. And then there is a LONG way to go up to Tallahassee area… so that’s just COMPLETE bullshit DOOM_PORN on behalf of the self-important weathermen right now. It’s irresponsible in my opinion and YES it may definitely have the exact effect you suggest.

      And people wonder why folks don’t heed the warnings to get out ahead of these things. Well, THATS WHY.

      • There was definitely a “click bait” and ratings grab aspect to this hurricane. The Weather Channel has been laughably ridiculous.

        Hurricanes can obviously be extremely deadly, but TWC keeps showing computer images that show entire cities under 9 feet of water and would lead you to believe EVERY city on east and west coast of Florida is definitely going to be wiped away by Tuesday.

        If another major hurricane threatens Florida in the next 10 years, majority of people will ignore warnings, even if theyre legit.

  4. UPDATE: As of 0830 Saturday, the EURO model (reported as most accurate model over last 10 years) is showing a path significantly west of Florida.

  5. Come to think of it, if they don’t care about our rights or our cities, why do we trust them to give us accurate weather forecast? It did seem they were pushing people to panic and go buy all kinds of stuff (if we wanted to survive or if we could find it)… and they went from one side of Florida to another…. a lot of corporations made millions on this.
    We still don’t know where the dam thing is going.
    this country is sick.

    • Goverment is only left with 2 options:

      1. We knew where this was going and its a big scam

      2. We still dont know jack shit about predicting weather (which hurts the “We need to raise your taxes so we can control temps 100 years from now” narrative).

  6. Another thing to keep in mind is that in 2005 when Katrina first made landfall, it hit Ft Lauderdale as a Cat 1 before traversing the state and made it to the Gulf of Mexico where it became the cat. 5 beast it became. So if this storm does continue into the Gulf, perhaps like Katrina before, it will grow and not shrink in size. Added to that possibility is the next storm not too far off in the distance which seems to be following the path of Irma. So what will people in South Fla do then? Will they heed another warning to get out of harms way? Any one have any updates on what that storm, named Jose I believe, is up to? I do believe it is still “better safe than sorry”. Just my two cents.

  7. What if I told you that there was no hurricane?

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