Irma UPDATES – Look Out Swamp People!

by Scott Creighton

No, I’m not a weather website and no, I’m not getting into disaster porn. But since Irma is tracking closer and closer to my happy little hovel and my furry family, I thought I would give you guys an update.

First of all, Irma has been downgraded to a Cat. 4 with sustained wind-speed at 155mph. It’s also slowing so the estimated landfall time in Florida has been pushed back to Sat. night around 8pm or so.

It’s tracking just north of Cuba and is expected to make some kind of landfall there in the next few hours.

The worst thing about Irma for me is it’s western drift or at least the western drift of the projected path.

You might recall the spaghetti models from just two days ago. Only the outlier models had Irma hitting Florida.

Image result for hurricane irma spaghetti models

Image result for hurricane irma spaghetti models

Yesterday morning the predictions had shifted west a bit and had Irma hugging the east coast of my home state.

Image result for hurricane irma spaghetti models

As you can see, the European model, widely considered the best of all of them or at least the most accurate, had Irma tracking west of the center-line of the state and making landfall somewhere around Everglades National Park down there on the southern-most tip of Florida.

Today I wake up to this.

As you can see, the majority of the predictions have Irma making landfall as a Cat. 4 somewhere on the southern tip of Florida and running straight up the state. Here’s a median estimate of the path.

Image result for hurricane irma projected path

As slow as she is moving I fully expect Irma’s path to continue to deviate before hitting us down here. Some models suggest it could make landfall in Cuba and then get pushed out into the Gulf and make it all the way up to the Panhandle before landing again.

If it continues on that westward track, Irma could pass the tip of Florida and make way in the warm waters of the Gulf before heading north and God only knows what it will be by time it lands where ever it lands.

On the path that is projected now, looks like it will be knocking on my door sometime Sunday as a Cat. 2 which, if I’m not mistaken, has sustained winds of between 96 and 110 mph.

I would hope that it wouldn’t make it that far up the center of the state as a Cat. 2 and that it would lose some energy by time it gets this far north. But what do I know.

If it stays true to this latest prediction, lots of lives will be saved since it will make landfall in a swamp as opposed to South Beach, Miami. There’s nothing really down there except some gators, some swamp people hunting gators and some film crews from AE filming the swamp people hunting the gators.

If it cuts up north earlier than it is now expected and runs up the east coast it will be devastating.

If it continues it’s westward track and gets into the warm waters of the Gulf, it’s gain steam and there’s no telling where it will hit but where ever it does, if it does that, it’ll be in a much more populated area than Everglades National Park.

I hate to say this because I know some folks down there are going to be in harm’s way, but if Irma continues on it’s projected path at this time, yes, I might see some hurricane force winds in my little happy hovel, BUT… it would literally be the best location for landfall in Florida… if it has to make landfall in Florida.

Of course the MSM wont tell you that because every weather system has to be the worst ever in the history of ever and the Florida state government wants as much money from DC as possible, but the truth is what it is. If Irma makes landfall there it will lose a lot of energy before hitting a major population center and Miami and Fort Myers will have dodged a serious bullet.

Anyway, I will try to keep you guys up to date. Her paths are changing every minute now.

Good luck to all those in her path right now and the folks in Cuba.

And good luck to all you swamp people and your film crews.

And good luck to the gators. I like gators. Not the Florida Gators. They suck.

23 Responses

  1. good weather report…..
    🙂

  2. Great rundown. Better than 90% of the “expert” reports I’ve been seeing. Sorry if I missed it, but where are you located? I’m in Melbourne, so I was happy when many models were showing a path far off the east coast two days ago, but now I feel bad hoping storm shifts a little farther west from current track.

    • I’m in Tampa, right there on the west coast where that big bay is and that little thingy hanging down in the bay. It’s right by the place they show the “2” in the map showing Irma going right up the middle of the state. That’s Hillsborough Bay and that little thingy like a micro penis, is basically Tampa. don’t feel bad. A cat 2 is bad, if it runs by here as a Cat 2. but it’s MUCH better than seeing it hit Miami as a 5 or even a 4. Everyone is talking about all the folks leaving before it hits but what they DONT do is go to the poor areas of Miami and show you all the POOR PEOPLE stuck in their homes, sitting on their porches WAITING because they can’t afford to leave. If a Cat 5 hit them, it would be as bad as Katrina. They should be sending every bus in the damn state down there NOW to get those people the hell out even AFTER this westward shift JUST IN CASE… but of course, all the MSM talks about are the upper class areas that are ghost towns right now. I would MUCH rather have it come here after hitting the swamps than see it hit them. and that’s a fact. I’ll survive a Cat 2. Did it before in 2004. Even a Cat 3. I’ll be alright.

      • Completely agree with you brother. Current path is probably the least impactful option. If central Florida doesnt get hit with a Cat 2, that means a big population area is probably getting hit with a 4 or 5. Although the eye possibly passing over Orlando, even as a 2, is going to create some significant damage. Great point about Miama. I grew up in Baytown TX (SE of Houston), so Ive seen a few huricanes. But besides the poor, there are still tons of people in flood zones and trailers who could evacuate, but think they can ride it out.

  3. The ones I am worried about are the wildlife. They are the most vulnerable.

    Does anyone else think these megastorms might be the result of geoengineering? The way Harvey, for example, was predicted to poop out in the Gulf, then it suddenly veers to the right and makes landfall as a Category 4 and plows up the coast. “They” do know how to do this, by creating artificial lows through heating areas in the atmosphere with microwaves, for example, sucking the storm thataway.

  4. Thanks for the recap. Stay safe and give us an update when possible.

  5. Your update takes a load off your fans if it stays true.

    God help you all.

  6. Thank you. My nephew, who lives on an island in northeastern Florida, told me last night that he is under mandatory evacuation orders for this morning. I was surprised. It was not projected to get to him until late Monday, and there seems to be no certainty on landfall – guess they aren’t taking any chances. I am glad it may not hit land over Miami. Sorry, Swamp People and A&E. You take care of yourself. Be safe.

    • there is something odd going on with these mandatory evacuations. they have ordered one in Georgia for everyone east of I-95 I believe. Very odd. There’s got to be some kind of payoff for the state if they have ‘x” amounts of mandatory evacuations or something going on, I don’t know what it is but something fishy here. best of luck to your nephew. i mean, it could gather strength in the Gulf like I said and end up going right up there, so make sure he stays safe.

  7. I’m selfishly hoping that Florida gets blown all the way back towards Spain. Then the Spanish can have it again. No offense to you swamp folk but I feel like this peninsula detachment/reassignment scenario would be a win-win for everybody. Better than slowly being submerged by (all natural© and absolutely-nothing-to-do-with-human-activity) rising sea level.
    Also simplifies the problem of swamp people trying to skidaddle to high ground in the US. We certainly don’t want any more swamp refugees up here stealing our jobs, women and wildlife.

    • ah man, you went all Swampacist on me and my Swamp brethren. I would be deeply offended if I didn’t see a kind of cruel ironic logic to it all. But don’t worry, we shant be taking your jobs (duk er dos!) because, according to reports, we are all lazy down here except for the illegals… and we have no teeth so we wont stand much of a chance taking your women-folk either. Yeah, I also admit, I would rather go out in a blaze of glory flying around in the air like some kind of “white trash” Dorothy or something rather than drowning slowly and having to say to myself “Al Gore was right all along” before the bitter end. I will give you that. Maybe if the Sunshine State breaks off we could eventually be assilimated like Hawaii and Guam and make it back into the fold and then maybe, just maybe, we could get some respect. or maybe not.

      • Dont forget to clutch your Confederate flag as you fly through the air😂

        • can’t. I draped a statue of DIXIE with it. What exactly is a DIXIE by the way. Don’t know but for some strange reason, I wish I was there. Feel like I could make a stand there… odd

      • Cool, good to know our jobs and women-folk are relatively safe. Phew. I was afraid we’d have to wall off the Rockies to keep you swamp folk out.

        I’ll admit we’re a bit Swampacist up here in the PNW after all the 2000 election shenanigans and whatnot. Also, the film Deliverance made a lot of our canoeists nervous as hell (even though technically those were hill people and not swamp people doing the rapin’).

        If by chance you do get hoovered-up in the vortex like an XL Dorothy I hope you’re fortunate enough to land gently in a nice country with affordable healthcare. Perhaps Cuba? Try gliding south (like flying squirrel) if possible dude.

        Best of luck (or bon voyage?), Sunshine State! Hope everything goes alright with your nuclear plants and all…

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